Did you hear? It's Ganjar time
Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto react to Megawati Sukarnoputri's surprise Friday announcement
Hello friends!
A quick round-up in the immediate aftermath of the formal announcement of Ganjar Pranowo.
In the weeks ahead, I’ll be paying close attention to how Ganjar can bounce back from the World Cup controversy, if Prabowo Subianto and Gerindra will continue to build a ‘big coalition’ or streamline and who Anies Baswedan and Nasdem are eyeing for allies.
It’s beginning to firm up — here are the foundations.
See you next fortnight here or every couple of days at Dari Mulut ke Mulut
Erin Cook
To quote directly from the group chat: well, well, well.
Megawati Sukarnoputri’s deadline of June 1, Pancasila Day, to announce the PDI-P presidential candidate seemed increasingly ill-advised as other parties began ramping up the campaign machines. But a push notification first thing Friday morning from Detik flagging a party press conference later that afternoon shocked me awake.
It’s Ganjar Pranowo, the popular Central Java Governor who has been topping polls for on a year now. No surprises, really. That Megawati would tap daughter and Speaker Puan Maharani seemed less likely as this year progressed. The choice isn’t what’s interesting here — it’s the timing.
This weekend was Indonesia’s first Idul Fitri completely sans pandemic restrictions and it was enormous. Mudik, the week or so leading up to Idul Fitri when many (MANY) Muslims return to their hometowns to celebrate the end of Ramadan with their families was bigger than ever:
https://twitter.com/dmkmtoday/status/1648872685760573440
A whole lot of people were still on the road Friday. May others, who follow the Muhammadiyah guidance, were celebrating Idul Fitri already. So why then?
I’ve heard and read many theories that run the gamut of WhatsApp conspiracies to totally plausible. Two friends separately told me their ideas yesterday. The first is one I’ve heard a few times but was buoyed by confirmation that it’s exactly how it played out at many celebrations — Megawati and PDI-P wanted people to talk about it with their families during the weekend.
The second, less fun, answer was pure security brain. Any announcement during the Idul Fitri holidays means virtually zero possibility of protests. This was explained to me as directly linked to the fallout of the World Cup U20 mess from a few weeks back. Ganjar and other PDI-P cadres’ role in the drama has been tied to a dip in poll support for the governor. With would-be protestors busy, it was a very opportune time.
Much of the analysis from Jakarta is still to come given the break, but there have been some very interesting comments so far.
Defence Minister and Gerindra candidate Prabowo Subianto dropped by President Joko Widodo’s place in Solo on Saturday, but don’t read anything into that he told media. “As per tradition [in Indonesia], it’s customary for an underling to pay respects to their leader during Idul Fitri,” he said.
Interestingly, he batted down questions from reporters about the possible pairing with Ganjar. “Gerindra is in a strong position right now,” he said but noted it’s still fluid as per the Jakarta Post. In a perfect exemplifier of Indonesian presidential politics, he was also quoted by the same paper on the same day (via Kompas) sounding more open to the prospects of teaming up: “We will see. All possibilities can [happen]. What is important in politics is that we seek the good for the nation and the people.”
His Gerindra party mates were less cagey on Sunday when asked similar questions. “Gerindra is firm with the decision to nominate Mr. Prabowo for president. His odds are very high with strong public support given the current situation,” party Deputy Chair Fadli Zon said, via the Jakarta Globe.
Buckle up! Former Jakarta governor and NasDem candidate Anies Baswedan told his supporter after the announcement. “We are faced with a strong opponent who has more than enough resources to join and even win a competition. The struggle ahead won’t be easy,” he said in a video posted online on Saturday.
As the Jakarta Globe notes: ‘Unlike Ganjar, Anies will have to wait until Nasdem builds a coalition with other parties with at least 20 percent of House of Representatives seats combined to get his name on the ballot next year.’ PDI-P has cleared that hurdle.
Analysis: Prabowo, the comeback kid of the 2024 elections (The Jakarta Post)
In spite of their rivalry in the last two elections, Prabowo has been loyal to the President as a member of the Cabinet. He has been careful not to be seen in opposition to Jokowi on any issue. Unlike Ganjar, he refrained from commenting on Indonesia’s hosting the U-20 World Cup that would have seen the participation of Israel, a country with which Indonesia has not diplomatic relations.
As US gets to know Indonesia’s Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, China likely to do the same (SCMP)
In 2018, China’s Hebei Bishi Steel Group invested US$2.54 billion in Central Java. In 2019, Ganjar appealed to Chinese business leaders from Fujian to invest in his province.
Prabowo has had a chequered history with the United States. He was banned from entering the country in 2000 and 2012 because of his alleged involvement in human-rights violations at the end of dictator Suharto’s rule, in the 1990s.
Indonesia looks set for three-horse, two-round 2024 race (The Jakarta Post)
Indonesian voters are highly likely to be casting their ballots in a three-horse presidential race come 2024, following the surprise nomination of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), quashing hopes for a quick election with the establishment of a “grand coalition” of pro-government parties.