Hello friends!
Back for a fortnight update and this one is far more sports-heavy than I ever like news to be.
Join us over at Dari Mulut ke Mulut for a regional update if you haven’t yet!
See you next fortnight,
Erin Cook
Did the PDI-P start a war with FIFA for votes?
That’s the apparent bottom line as the dust settles in Indonesia’s brief spat with the governing football body.
This has been covered extensively (and better! What’s soccer?) elsewhere, but these are the bones: Indonesia was set to host the U-20 World Cup in Bali this year but has been stripped of hosting duties after Bali Governor I Wayan Koster refused to allow the Israel national team to play in the province. Protests from right-wing Islamist groups over Israel’s floated attendance were to be expected, but Koster’s refusal was a little more surprising. Bali is often considered to be more peaceful and tolerant than neighbouring Java (which also ignores quite a bit of the province’s history, but that’s largely irrelevant here).
This was building throughout the final days of March and it was heading towards some tough choices for Indonesia, before FIFA made the decision itself. Following a meeting between FIFA President Gianni Infantino and the chairman of Indonesia’s governing body, the deeply embattled PSSI, Erick Thohir, FIFA announced it would drop Indonesia as host for the tournament. It was set to begin at the end of next month and has left loads of local vendors out of pocket after preparing for the enormous event.
The whole debacle has sidelined players. Despite being football-mad, Indonesia fares poorly in the international game. The Indonesian youth side was guaranteed an in by virtue of hosting and will now sit it out. Players don’t blame anyone but lawmakers: “We sacrificed our time, thoughts, sweat and even blood. But it suddenly failed due to your political reasons,” striker Rabbani Tasnim Siddiq said on Instagram, as quoted by Reuters.
His view is widely shared.
This excellent piece from the news desk at the Jakarta Post lays out the myriad reasons why this became such a flashpoint and most of those lead back to PDI-P playing games. Koster, a PDI-P member, was joined by other party heavy-hitters, including Ganjar Pranowo, in calling for Israel to stay home.
PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto directly tied the party’s view to Sukarno and the Asia-Africa Conference of his era (What a fortuitous time to have recently read Legge’s Sukarno biography). “This is not about religion, this is about independence as the right of all nations,” he said on CNN Indonesia and quoted by Jakarta Post.
Yeah, sure, writes the Jakarta Post, but the elections probably carry more weight. “Speculation is rife,” the paper says, that this incident is a “test” of would-be candidates by party boss Megawati Sukarnoputri. That Erick Thohir, newly installed PSSI chair but also a potential PDI-P candidate for next year or beyond, has been so deeply involved gives this strong merit. Jakarta Post also tackled security concerns. This is a very real worry, but the paper downplayed it after a series of crackdowns in recent years on local cells.
New polling released by Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) yesterday shows a drop in PDI-P — and Ganjar himself — support among those polled in the immediate aftermath from March 31 to April 4. “PDI-P in January 2023 still scored 22 percent and dropped to 19.3 percent and slumped to 17.7 percent in April,” LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan told reporters yesterday. Gerindra has enjoyed a bump going from 10.9 percent in February to 12.8 percent in April.
Interestingly, analysis of LSI polling elsewhere from Tempo found support for Erick Thohir himself remains high. “80.6 percent of respondents” supported his moves and believe he did everything he could in balancing the debate.
Whether this is directly tied to the scandal, I can’t say. According to Djayadi, much of the lost support for Ganjar has been picked up by Prabowo Subianto — although Anies Baswedan has enjoyed a modest boost — which could be the product of other factors like increased prominence alongside President Joko Widodo and the broadening of his base, which we’ll discuss below.
Anyway, it’s not over yet. Bali is set to host the World Beach Games in August and Koster does not want Israel to come.
Prabowo is building the biggest tent you’ve ever seen
Not to be too thick with the Sukarno references today, but I can’t help but think about his views on how parliamentary democracy should work — Indonesian style. Gerindra candidate and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has his head down in recent days stitching together a coalition of parties that back President Joko Widodo. This works well with recent analysis (and Instagram posts) suggesting a deeply close working relationship between the former electoral adversaries in shielding off a challenge from elsewhere.
Let’s call it the “middle way.” At least, that’s what Prabowo and staunch Jokowi ally/National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Zulkifli Hassan say. PAN is in, and so is Hary Tanoesoedibjo’s Perindo. Crescent Star Party (PBB) chief Yusril Ihza Mahendra threw his lot in, calling the coalition “ideal” and demonstrating “democracy that is unique to Indonesia, which is based on brotherhood, teamwork and mutual cooperation,” as per the Jakarta Post.
In crucial analysis from the Jakarta Globe, this must be noted: if PDI-P jumps in to join, this leaves just NasDem, the Democratic Party, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) on the outs. With the election law requiring parties must hold 20 percent of seats in the House to nominate a presidential candidate, there would be no choice but for the three to team up. NasDem has already nominated Anies Baswedan and there’s little chance they’ll back off that bet. The Democratic Party, established by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and led by son Agus, appears fixed in support of Anies. PKS has trouble picking winners though, so that may not bode well.
To me, this seems like a great way to dilute the power of PDI-P if it joins and up the chances of a non-PDI-P candidate being endorsed. If Ganjar’s polling figures continue to drop and Prabowo’s numbers continue to rise along his big tent turning into a marquee — Ganjar’s head start gap might fully be closed.