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Hello friends!
Ah, another one of those days where I think I know whatās happening and then itās not what is happening.
Constitutional Court Reasseses the Rules
I waited so long today to begin writing ā get the vibes first as the Constitutional Court walked through the decisions in several challenges to age restrictions for candidates.Ā
And then, as is often the way, everything changed all at once. To spare you the quips and the overly detailed look at the various challenges (is this killing my darlings?) hereās all that we really need to know: the Constitutional Court has ruled that it will not drop the minimum age for candidates from 40 down to 35, but it will make exceptions for 35 to 39-year-olds with public service experience. Like serving as the mayor of Solo, for instance.Ā
The decision all but guarantees Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Joko Widodo, will be selected to run alongside Prabowo Subianto as his VP pick. Polling has Prabowo neck-and-neck or slightly ahead of Central Javaās Ganjar Pranowo, and this decision, along with the Projo moves over the weekend, things must be feeling pretty good for some.Ā
Official registration for candidates opens Thursday and will close on the 25th.Ā Expect to hear from me again this week as deliberations continue, but the real show will be on deadline day.
Projo Goes ProBowo
The enormous Projo network, which helped deliver Joko Widodo to the presidency in 2014 and 2019, has thrown its weight behind Prabowo Subianto.Ā
The President has been vocal about what type of successor heād like, but hasnāt named names. āWe conclude what the president meant was Prabowo Subianto. He is a brave man and is committed to the welfare of Indonesians,ā Communications Minister and Projo chief Budi Arie Setiadi said, as reported by Reuters.Ā
Itās not quite an official endorsement from Jokowi, but it might be a sign one isnāt far off.Ā
Heading East
And what of Anies Baswedan? The third candidate is leaning into his fresh running mateās popularity in East Java. Throngs of supporters greeted Anies and Cak Imin during a rally in Sidoarjo on Sunday.
A Quick Rise to the Top for Kaesang
Last Ayolah we chatted about how Kaesang Pangarep, the second son of President Joko Widodo, had joined the Indonesia Solidarity Party (PSI) ahead of a likely run for mayor of Depok. Just days later he was appointed chairman of the PSI. The announcement was met with eye-rolling and some (occasionally vicious!) jibes about nepo babies.Ā
PSI isnāt a big party and fell short of winning any seats in the 2019 election. The party has spent the years since effectively acting as a youth wing to PDI-P, but with deliberate ties to the president rather than PDI-P Megawati Sukarnoputri and her faction. I think, in the longer run, this wonāt matter much but itās interesting while it lasts.Ā
Further reading
This scene-setter from Sana Jaffrey for Carnegie has been shared far and wide, for good reason. Beautifully written and touches on the trajectories of the various candidates (and Mega and Jokowi) have taken to get here, but itās the final analysis that is the most thought-provoking: āThe collusive power-sharing practiced by the old guard over the past two decades has given Indonesiaās democracy a predictable inertia: they have obstructed reform but have also blocked individual attempts to concentrate power,ā Jaffrey writes.Ā
Great to see the MAK doing it's best to prove that some form of jurisprudence took place.