Hello friends!
Weâre back! Iâve got some intriguing interviews in the chamber waiting to go over the coming weeks, but today Iâve opted for a slightly unhinged rant of sorts about PDI-P. Itâs less polling and campaigning thatâs the big story of the election this month, and itâs all about the breakdown between Megawati Sukarnoputri and President Joko Widodo. I find this very compelling and Iâm obsessed with it so indulge me, just this week.
See you Monday (or every day at
)Erin
Fantastic comprehensive report here from Yerica Lai at the Jakarta Post explores how the rift between President Joko Widodo and PDI-P boss Megawati Sukarnoputri is shaping the election. In classic Indonesian political reporting form, itâs all âtensions appearâ and âexperts thinkâ and âobservers sayâ. But the vibes of the whole thing are so palpable and Jakartaâs press corp so adept at reading the room â and between the lines of monosyllabic responses of officials â that I half expect pieces like this to end with âlook, we all know, right? We can all see this.âÂ
Still, Yerica Lai lays it out for us. The âlong-standing conflictâ between Jokowi and Mega dates back to the opening years of his presidency in 2014. Mega wants to hold on to control of the party she built to become the biggest electoral machine in the country, but Jokowi has continued to boast popularity ratings most Western leaders could only ever dream of. Mega wants PDI-P to stay on top and Jokowi wants his policy agenda to continue for the future. These were not mutually exclusive goals.Â
Yerica Lai notes Jokowi had pushed and pushed for Central Java governor and friend Ganjar Pranowo to be named PDI-Pâs presidential candidate but it was only on the eve of Idul Fitri that Mega conceded daughter and Speaker of the House Puan Maharani had nowhere near the public support of Ganjar, and named him instead. This race couldâve looked a hell of a lot different today if the party executive had acknowledged this a year ago.Â
Itâs already a little bizarre to think that polling last year showed Prabowo Subianto trailing Ganjar. That the response to his (then unofficial) hat in the ring was almost of cringe â how sad to watch him try again, went much of the analysis â is forgotten. Itâs a painful lesson that PDI-P ought to have learnt in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok. There were a lot of other enormous factors at play in Ahok not retaining the governorship that we shanât rehash here, but Iâve always felt a major one was PDI-P not supporting him until relatively late in the game. A major caveat here is Ahok had signed a âpolitical contractâ with the party in 2016 before joining formally, after his release from prison on blasphemy charges, in 2019.Â
Regardless, both moves reflect an ambivalence at the heart of PDI-Pâs electoral machinations that doesnât bode well for its future. PDI-P is Indonesiaâs largest, most popular party and has the might to go all-in on challenges even if it would not likely win â like Jakarta in 2017 â but operates like a much smaller shop. There is the capacity here for PDI-P to totally dominate the post-post Reformasi period, but itâs looking less likely. Now weâre already talking about a split, about Jokowi peeling off his support for a new party or, perhaps, Gerindra. (Imagine writing that sentence in 2019!) Yerica Lai flags a case at the Constitutional Court arguing for a decrease in the minimum age of candidacy that, if successful, could see Jokowiâs eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka running alongside Prabowo.Â
(Some) Punters want it, in Labuan Bajo at least.Â
The Jakarta Post has run an interesting opinion piece from Tenggara Strategics today that warns things are likely to get worse between Mega and Jokowi. Last week, it notes, Mega revealed she had repeatedly advised Jokowi to dissolve the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK: â...as it is âno longer effectiveâ, an indirect criticism of the presidentâs failure to stem corruption. For good measure, she reminded her audience that the KPK was set up in 2002 when she was president. In the first 15 years, the KPK jailed many cabinet ministers, top judges, police officers and politicians, but it faltered under a new law in 2020 that stripped away many of its investigative powers.âÂ
It also cites polling from Kompas that found a staggering 49.7% of respondents said they âwould considerâ Jokowiâs candidate of choice when making their vote decision.
Anyway, enough of that! I had more feelings there than I expected and it could turn on anything so Iâll probably have egg on my face by October.Â
How Anies is playing it
I missed this one earlier in the month, but given that Anies Baswedanâs name hasnât come up at all in this newsletter today I ought to flag it. Helen Pausacker took a look at the former Jakarta governorâs candidacy with a particular focus on how he has tried to rehab his reputation after the courting of hardline Islamists in the 2017 gubernatorial race â a winner for him then, but a killer in a national race:
âHaving kept quiet on ethnic and religious issues since reaching office, Anies is now talking up his achievements in promoting tolerance. He has pointed out that his government increased spending on support for all religions, gave building permits for thirty Christian churches, allowed the singing of Christmas carols in the street, and erected a big Christmas tree in central Jakarta.
He is doing this because, historically, Indonesians have never shown a tendency to vote for Islamic parties, or candidates with strong religious beliefs in national elections.
Were it not for his association with the mobilisation of Islamist hardliners in 2017, Anies may have found it easier to attract protest votes from people who did not want to vote for the other two candidates â who both have a more secular outlook. This is now a problem for Anies.â
Changing the rules of the game
Both chambers of the House have floated making changes to the constitution that would allow for electoral delays. Delaying the February vote had previously been floated, citing the pandemic recovery, but these recent conversations are looking further ahead. âWe propose this so we have a regulation if the country is facing a certain situation where we cannot do any change of leadership,â Speaker of the Upper House Bambang Soesatyo told Reuters.Â
A challenge earlier in the year to delay the 2024 election was accepted by a Jakarta court before being overruled in June. Reuters notes the Supreme Court is still deliberating on an appeal there, though it hasnât slowed down preparations.Â