Hello friends!
An update here on the PDI-P moves over the weekend. I’m very keen to see what happens here in the coming week — and what doesn’t happen. Will be following close.
As always, join us at Dari Mulut ke Mulut for updates from across Southeast Asia.
What’s the go with that third term? PDI-P recriminations in recent weeks have put the weird third-term extension plan back into view, with some within PDI-P saying the president himself was behind the plan. This fell out of fashion at the top of the year, but it’s important to remember that it was never President Jokowi himself who publicly came out in support of the plan — just a lot of supporters and backers.
Nah, he wasn’t behind it at all, says Speaker and would’ve been-presidential candidate Puan Maharani. Puan told media over the weekend that Jokowi and her mother, PDI-P boss Megawati Sukarnoputri, never even chatted about it because it was simply never on the cards. It’s unconstitutional and that’s that.
Which is very interesting framing given how important the Constitution has become to the PDI-P since the court’s decision to allow Jokowi’s son, Gibran, to run. PDI-P would do anything for Jokowi, but it won’t do that.
“We really loved and gave privileges to President Jokowi and his family, but we have been left behind because there were demands [from the President] that have the potential to violate moral principles and the Constitution,” party secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said Sunday.
The comments are the most blunt yet following the escalation between the PDI-P and Jokowi, but there’s definitely room for it to go further. I think Hasto is holding back:
“All the things that have happened in the chain of events leading to Gibran’s [VP] candidacy have in fact been political disobedience toward the Constitution and the Indonesian people. All of this is on top of legal manipulation at the Constitutional Court … Hopefully, this dark cloud [looming over the nation’s] democracy will soon pass, and the Indonesian people will understand who left whom for the sake of their ambition for power,” he added Sunday, as per the Jakarta Post.
The framing now is ‘this is bad for Indonesia’ and has cast PDI-P as the guardians of democracy — again — in the country. But, I kinda expect to start seeing some more personal jibes, whether through Hasto or more subtly. I just feel like we’re going to be hearing a lot about those rumours that swirl around the coffee shops of Menteng and never quite make it out.
Tenggara Strategics’ analysis today notes Mega herself hasn’t said a thing and she’s told cadres to keep it neat, for now at least. “Megawati is focusing on winning the legislative election and beating Prabowo, and Jokowi’s family, in the presidential election. The PDI-P, for instance, is now initiating talks with Anies Baswedan’s camp to court the latter to support Ganjar-Mahfud if Anies falls out in the second round of the presidential elections,” the analysis notes.
Not quite scorched Earth, but the best revenge is living well. Or so I’ve heard.
Further reading/listening
Great explainer here from Amy Sood at SCMP for those catching up now. Very intrigued by the comments from Sana Jaffrey on the Anies camp’s new relative quietness. Anies Baswedan had been far more likely to criticise President Jokowi and his programmes, but that’s changing a little now and Jaffrey has an idea why: “Anies is not doing something controversial, and the reason for that might be that Jokowi has shown a tendency for using state institutions to influence these kinds of things. People would be cautious in terms of taking a very confrontational line against Widodo now, especially now that his son is in the running,” she said.
“Dinasti Jokowi?” (Reformasi Dispatch)
Reformasi Dispatch is always a must-listen but as we inch closer, better make sure it’s on the roster. I was so in agreement with co-host Jeff Hutton’s take that the Constitutional Court decision allowing Gibran to run is “not necessarily” a bad idea, just executed in such a tense way, I was doing like slam poetry clicking. I am not emotionally prepared to begin talking about the (likely) runoff, but a heads-up from guest Seth Soderborg that was v intriguing to me: the assumption is votes from likely third-place getter Anies will naturally flow to the Prabowo-Gibran ticket, but “we actually don’t know. That second round election is eight months from now.” Well, I’ll just try to make it to February first.
Can Jokowi influence Indonesia’s presidential election? (East Asia Forum)
If Made Supriatma writes it, I’ll read it. The consensus is that Jokowi’s immense popularity means that, as it stands, what he says goes. But how true is that? Ah, pretty true. Made looks at the various methods in elite consolidation, the evolution of the president from outsider in Solo to kingmaker and the administrative successes that have entrenched his personal interests. The naive furniture man image should’ve burnt off wholly by now, but if it hasn’t give this a close read.