Hello friends!
I swung by the first day of the registration period for president and VP candidates yesterday and let me tell you: my weather app wasn’t joking about that ‘extreme heat’ warning. Good lord, I am red.
The Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, or Cak Imin, ticket was the first registered. In further evidence Indonesia is in a league of its own when it comes to wordplay, the AMIN campaign was in a big party mood.
Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD registered later in the day, by which point I had returned to the sweet, blessed AC of my hotel room so have no great snaps from there. Now, we need our third shoe to drop — Prabowo Subianto and whoever he will pick, the best-kept secret in town.
Mahfud MD, It’s (Finally) Your Time to Shine!
Come on down, Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mahfud MD! He’s officially running second fiddle to PDI-P’s Ganjar Pranowo after an announcement earlier this week and registration yesterday.
Mahfud MD has been in and out of public life for decades, first serving as Gus Dur’s minister of defence back in 2000. I can’t remember if this is one of those things that formally happened or everyone just knew it was happening, but the minister, a former lawyer who also served as a constitutional court judge, was set to run alongside Jokowi in 2019 before being ditched for Ma’ruf Amin. It followed speculation in 2014 that he would run before the Jokowi juggernaut ruined it for everyone. This has big time given him an ‘always the bridesmaid’ vibe in Indonesian politics — though he’s not alone in that this time around!
Gotcha, says PDI-P. The pairing changes the maths for the Prabowo camp, Yurica Lei reports for the Jakarta Post. Mahfud MD is immensely experienced — certainly more than a 36-year-old, no matter how good they’ve done by Solo. He’s also well-connected with Nahdlatul Ulama, the wildly influential Islamic organisation. With Mahfud MD on one ticket and Cak Imin on another, does Prabowo need to consider someone with closer connections to NU? Someone like, hmm, the Minister for State-Owned Enterprises?
Prabowo Readies to Make His Pick
Now what? It’s watching and waiting for Prabowo Subianto now. Despite Monday’s enormous day at the Constitutional Court, we still don’t have a clear indication of who will be announced as his running mate.
This close to the wire, we’re looking at either Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the mayor of Solo and son of Jokowi, or Erick Thohir, the Minister of State Owned Enterprises, former media mogul and mad soccer fan. I have no insight on which way it will go but I’ll be following those breathless Detik notifications about who is visiting who and where with fervour over the weekend.
Both Gibran and Erick would be enormous draws for the Prabowo ticket.
Gibran is beloved in Solo, where friends from the town say he’s transformed the city after following in his father’s footsteps. That could be a problem for Ganjar Pranowo, who draws his support from the same cohort. And what better way to prove to legions of Jokowi supporters that you’re keen to continue his work than by selecting his eldest son? Dynasty concerns aside, the close maneuvering has some wondering if Gibran will jump ship from the PDI-P to Gerindra in the long run. Gibran will have a long, successful career in Indonesian politics — if he wants it — but I just feel like it’s not going to be him. I think he’ll go gubernatorial somewhere (probably Jakarta). That’s based solely on vibes and let’s see how it ages.
If I was Prabowo, I’d pick Erick Thohir. He is mega-wealthy and probably as closely related to Jokowi as you can be without blood ties. Now the Minister of SOEs, Erick was very prominent as Jokowi’s re-election campaign leader in 2019, was a major organiser of the Asian Games, co-hosted by Jakarta and Palembang in 2018, and was tapped to clean up Indonesian football’s governing body PSSI. This is all headline stuff and of all the ministers, Erick is certainly one of a select few most closely identifiable with the President.
There are a few others in the mix (and knowing my luck so far with this damned newsletter, it’ll end up being one of them), like East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa.
Instead, here’s why we have to wait (besides the dramatic tension): There are seven parties in the coalition backing Prabowo for president and they all need to be on board. Getting them in the same room is hard enough. National Mandate Party chairman and Minister for Trade Zulkifli Hasan is currently travelling with Jokowi in China and Saudi Arabia. He’ll be back today and candidates must be registered on or before Wednesday. Go time!