And Prabowo Subianto makes three

The tricky question of Gibran

Hello friends,

It’s done! Prabowo Subianto will run with Gibran Rakabuming Raka after the pair registered at the KPU in Central Jakarta this morning to much fanfare. 

“Not to worry, I am here,” Gibran told supporters Wednesday morning, which is low-key kinda funny. He wasn’t in Jakarta when Prabowo announced him as a running mate over the weekend which was weird but I feel like he just made up for it. 

“I'd like to convey our determination ... to ask for a mandate from the people of Indonesia because we're facing a very important point in the history of the nation. We're facing a point where we can rise up toward a great Indonesia that is free from poverty, hunger and malnutrition,” Prabowo told the crowd this morning, as per Nikkei Asia. 

“We believe existing programs have already brought Indonesia toward the gate of advancement. Our duty now is to continue and perfect them. I believe continuation and consistency are the means to leap further toward a golden Indonesia,” Gibran added in an acknowledgement of his dad, President Joko Widodo. It’s so thinly-veiled that I’m not sure it’s correct to say it was ‘thinly-veiled.’ Can’t read the leaves on that one, sorry. 

The East Asia Forum’s editorial board lays out the stakes for Prabowo: “Getting the Jokowi seal of approval in this way would, however, be a double-edged sword for Prabowo, who for now is widely considered to be the frontrunner. With the presidential election expected to be decided in a runoff scheduled for late June 2024, over the course of a long campaign, attacks on Prabowo’s complicity in dynasty-building could gather momentum. An overt alliance with the Widodos also risks a backlash from the anti-Jokowi diehards now rallying around the underdog candidate, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, upon whose support Prabowo would depend in a runoff election.” 

I think this is an underrated and underexplored angle (so far, at least!) and I’d love to know more about what 14/19 Prabowo voters are thinking. Weird maths happening here.  

Court, KPK has a look-in

The Constitutional Court has received seven complaints about its ruling allowing Gibran to run, judge and Court spokesperson Enny Nurbaningsih said, as reported to Reuters. The complaints allege an “ethical violation” and one targeted Anwar Usman — judge AND Gibran’s uncle — specifically, and called for him to step down. “We leave this matter to the council. We will not intervene,” Enny said Monday.  

It doesn’t end there. The Corruption Eradication Commission, better known as the KPK, has received complaints of nepotism. Gibran and dad aren’t too worried about it, with both separately welcoming an investigation, as per CNN Indonesia. Uncle Anwar has been roped into but was less diplomatic in his response saying that he just laughed it off, and then literally said “ha, ha, ha.”

I think few expect to see either institution really go to the mat over this, but it does underline the upset in a huge segment of the electorate. What difference it makes in the vote itself is far too early to see just yet.

Dynasty talk

Yoes C Kenawas must be the busiest big brain in Jakarta this month. His research has focused on the dynasties that rule Indonesia and with the emergence of Gibran there’s more interest than ever. He took to the East Asia Forum to explore the rapid ascension of the second generation noting the twin moments of Kaesang Pangarep rocket to the top of PSI and the Constitutional Court ruling that allowed Gibran to run. 

I think I’ve underestimated the importance of Kaesang’s rise, given that PSI is hardly a heavy-hitter, but Yoes encourages it to be seen in the wider party issue: “PSI does not yet have an internal hegemonic politician in its ranks. Other parties have their own bosses or promotion mechanisms that would prevent Kaesang from taking the centre stage right away. In short, while PSI may not be the ideal party for Kaesang, it is the only party that is readily available to be transformed into a political vehicle for the Jokowi family should they receive disciplinary sanctions from PDI-P in response to Gibran joining Prabowo’s ticket.” And how! 

With the naming of Gibran, expect an escalation between PDI-P and Jokowi. Call it a “mutual hostage situation. Jokowi still needs PDI-P to ensure his government’s stability in his final year in office. On the other hand, PDI-P needs Jokowi as an electoral magnet for the February 2024 legislative elections.” 

Burhanuddin Muhtadi has more. “If the PDI-P does not criticise Jokowi, the party could see its electoral fortunes affected by the Prabowo-Gibran ticket, which could erode Ganjar’s support in PDI-P strongholds such as Central Java and East Java,” he writes for Fulcrum. He cites numbers from Indikator which show a jump in PSI from August’s 0.6% up to a still-not-great 1% at the top of the month, about a fortnight after Kaesang became party chair. BUT “the Indikator’s October poll found that PSI’s support could increase to 2.4 per cent when respondents were informed that Kaesang is the PSI chairman. At the time of the survey, only 39 per cent of respondents recognised Kaesang as the party chair,” he notes. 

Elsewhere on dynasty watch Prabowo Subianto, himself firmly of a dynasty, isn’t worried: “This is for national education that political dynasty is normal,” he said yesterday at PSI’s rally declaring support for the ticket, as reported by Tempo.