All eyes on the Constitutional Court
A challenge threatens to derail the KPU timeline
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Today’s a bit of a quick catch-up ahead of tomorrow’s court ruling so depending on how that goes we may have an update later in the week.
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Erin Cook
Open or closed, that is the question
Tomorrow the Constitutional Court will (likely) hand down its judgement in a case that would dramatically increase the odds of an election delay. A flank of lawmakers, including one from the governing PDI-P, want the electoral system returned to its pre-2008 process in which voters selected parties not individuals. It’s not widely popular within the House, Reuters reports eight of the nine factions have no interest in this at all.
Bivitri Susanti of Indonesia's Jentera school of law told the wire that “possibility of an election delay is high if the ruling is a closed system.” The electoral commission (KPU) would need far more time to prepare, he said.
It reminds me of a piece from Tim Lindsey and Simon Butt in March for the Conversation looking at the various challenges. The case above is certainly the most pressing, but rumours of efforts to change the constitution to allow hyper-popular President Jokowi a third term are persistent. This piece brings it all together.
This is one of those pre-election stories that if the court rules against the challengers and sticks with the status quo, this is nothing. If it rules in favour of the group everything changes. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Is ‘meddling’ an issue, or a necessity?
That’s what voters are asking themselves after Jokowi vowed ‘cawe-cawe,’ the Javanese word for ‘meddling’ in the campaign ahead. “Regarding meddling, I have already conveyed that it is my moral obligation as president during the transitional period in 2024 so that the national leadership can run well without any ripples that could endanger the nation,” the president said as reported by Channel News Asia.
Ray Rangkuti, an analyst from the Lingkar Madani think tank, told CNA nothing Jokowi has done so far has violated any electoral laws but there are fears that he may walk up to the fine line. He’s come out in favour of Ganjar Pranowo — but because there are no official candidates just yet, there’s nothing stopping him. Official or not, his backing of Ganjar, and occasionally Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, Ray notes this could give an impression of impartiality given Anies Baswedan has also thrown his hat in.
What to do about Artificial Intelligence?
Fascinating story here from the Jakarta Post on the use of Artificial Intelligence in campaigning. The KPU has ruled the emerging tech doesn’t fall under its remit and won’t bring in any rules to challenge usage. KPU commissioner Idham Holik told the paper that AI is permissible “as long as it does not violate campaign regulation and laws.”
The Jakarta Post reports other democracies around the world have begun to worry about implications, as well as the CEO behind ChatGPT, Sam Altman, who said election undermining is an area of “significant area of concern.”
This clearly isn’t only an issue in Indonesia but it is one of the first major electoral test cases. Deep fake videos have already gone viral over recent years, largely for nefarious and criminal uses, and the tech has only improved since.
A new generation rises
I’ve never seen a new dynasty rise in real time. Lee Hsien Loong was already comfortably prime minister of Singapore before I first ever visited and Bongbong Marcos was vice governor in Ilocos Norte before my parents even met.
But the Jokowi clan is well and truly rising. Much has been written about this, particularly son and current Mayor of Solo Gibran Rakabuming. Now, second son Kaesang Pangarep is eyeing off the mayoral race in Depok, just outside of Jakarta. I haven’t read nearly as much about Kaesang so I was very happy to see this piece from Wasisto Raharjo Jati on New Mandala delving into his moves. A must-read!
Further reading:
Chipping away at Indonesia’s electoral glass ceiling (East Asia Forum)
This breakthrough appears to be the payoff from women’s activists’ struggle to make the 30 per cent female candidate quota mandatory. It was followed by the implementation of the ‘zipper system’ — which aims to avoid placing female candidates at the bottom of the electoral list, where voters tend to overlook them. Though progress is happening gradually, these affirmative action policies appear to be pushing the fight to promote women’s representation.
Yet questions remains about women’s substantive representation. Despite efforts to increase demand for nominating female candidates within parties, existing affirmative policies have yet to address structural barriers to women’s participation in politics.
Speaking at the event, Ecosperity Week conference, Widodo stressed: "No need to worry. Your investment in Indonesia continues to be safe, and also the continuity of Nusantara capital city development."
The president has kept up his sales pitch even as his time in office winds down. He said the country had prepared 300 investment packages worth $2.6 billion in the housing, transport, energy and technology sectors.
Stressing Indonesia's social and political stability, Jokowi told participants: "Now, all that remains is for you to jump on board and join us together to become a multitrillion-dollar economy."
What’s behind Prabowo’s Ukraine peace plan? (Straits Times)
Mr Prabowo very likely knew his plan would be badly received in Western capitals, but the message may not have been intended for them but for a home audience. There, his views on Russia and Ukraine resonate better. His plan also points to how the war in Ukraine has spilt over into another battlefield: the fight to be Indonesia’s president in 2024. Mr Prabowo is having a third shot at it, having twice lost narrowly to the incumbent Joko Widodo.
His peace initiative at the Shangri-La Dialogue set off a flurry of questions back home, such as whether the Foreign Ministry signed off on it. When questioned about the matter by a parliamentary committee, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said MPs should direct their questions to the Defence Minister instead. President Widodo disavowed any prior knowledge, telling reporters that the peace plan had been Mr Prabowo’s own brainchild.