🇮🇩 A trip to Central Java changes everything
Ganjar, Prabowo and Jokowi walk through a rice field - now what?
Hello friends!
Last week saw Ramadan begin, heaps of tourists in Bali were deported over visa infringements and a spat over Israel’s attendance of the FIFA World Cup Under-20 beginning in May. There was also an enormous press trip to the site of the new capital which has left my Canberra-born-and-bred chip on the shoulder humming.
That’s left little room for Pilpres watch. This is the final Ramadan before the election, but it is still nearly a year away. So expect the usual party- and candidate-hosted events for the breaking of the fast, but possibly slightly muted compared to the big spend we’d see if the fasting month fell much closer to polls.
This is all a long, roundabout way of saying: there’s nothing to chat about except the Ganjar-Prabowo ticket talk.
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Erin Cook
This month’s poll from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting has Ganjar Pranowo at 35.5 percent, followed by Prabowo Subianto at 27.2 and Anies Baswedan at 24.8 percent. “There is still 14.7 percent of respondents who remain undecided,” SMRC research director Deni Irvani said in Jakarta last week, as per the Globe.
Ridwan Kamil received 5.6 percent and no other potential name picked up more than 2 percent of respondents, so this seems to be firming up really quickly. Presumably, these single-digit likely candidates include Megawati Sukarnoputri’s daughter Puan Maharani.
What makes this poll very interesting is it was conducted between March 2-11. Since then, rumours of a potential Ganjar-Prabowo (or Prabowo-Ganjar, depending on who you talk to) ticket have hardened. This has been helped along by President Joko Widodo taking Prabowo, a Defence Minister not typically expected to inspect the sawah of Central Java, along on a rice field visit with Ganjar in his home province.
This was initially read by many voters, in my understanding, as an attempt to pressure PDI-P boss Megawati Sukarnoputri to make her choice known or come out and back Ganjar as the party’s candidate. Now, I’m not so sure. Jokowi has been pushing Prabowo in his understated way for months. The Central Java trip now, in retrospect, seems like a debut of just how serious the president is.
I’m aware that today is heavily reliant on rumours, but the chatting is the most fun stage so indulge me a moment longer. The possibility that a new party will emerge post-Pilpres is one I have heard frequently in recent weeks (even if it’s somewhat a throwback) and a few people have suggested — and supported! — an idea of Jokowi and his allies branching away.
This is strengthened in recent weeks with Jokowi’s perception as the kingmaker, as shown by the Tempo cover and in reporting, while Megawati continues to wait and watch. Still! This wouldn’t be the first time I may have read Javanese political machinations with too much of a blunt Australian politics brain, but I’ll definitely be watching (and listening) closely.
Anywho. Polling has consistently shown Ganjar has the upper hand here, but for the PDI-P having all these voters love you isn’t enough — the party wants something a little more.
“Pak Jokowi talked about poll numbers and popularity [of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto], but presidential election is not only about electoral numbers but should be about commitments, ideas and responsibility for the country's future,” PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto said on a KompasTV panel Wednesday, as per the Jakarta Post. Crucially, the Jakarta Post elsewhere called Hasto a ‘longtime Megawati loyalist.’
Hasto also noted that the choice would be one factor of the party’s broad strategy for the election. It’s contesting in virtually every race in the enormous election and have a lot of hats in a lot of rings. “There's only so much that a president can do to affect massive change,” Hasto said. This is an interesting point. The president is, of course, the most prominent politician, but governors and down are crucial to the party remaining a force in provinces. I still also think it’s a little bit of hedging, particularly as Ganjar has the numbers (a cute little auspol phrase) and has a long track record of delivering as Central Java’s Governor.
Linda Yulisman, the brilliant Indonesia corro for the Straits Times, took a look at the other side of this potential equation. Gerindra heavy-hitter (and Prabowo’s brother) Hashim Djojohadikusumo called Prabowo’s place on the top of the ticket a “non-negotiable.” This flags some difficulty — and adds an enormous caveat that nothing here is set in stone.
It’s a “tough and difficult” ticket to broker, Professor Firman Noor, a senior researcher at the Political Research Centre of the National Research and Innovation Agency, told the Straits Times. With Ganjar polling so far ahead of everyone, would he be willing to play second fiddle to someone polling below him and someone who has already lost the race twice?
It’s naff to quote from cabbies and ojol one meets, but it’s true that these fellas know everything about everyone, always. What I wouldn’t give to be in on the group chats. This is what I heard this week:
On a quick trip from SCBD to Setiabudi in between talking about how much he loves his wife and how great her cooking is, a Bluebird driver told me he wants Anies Baswedan-Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono. A tick for Anies is nothing special in Jakarta, so we talked a little bit about Agus. This driver was a bit older and a great fan of Agus’ father, former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (indeed, he was thrilled to know this orang asing knew who he is). He was especially impressed with Agus’ military track record and his relative youth. He also had some very funny things to say about tourists in Bali, but that’s not quite the scope here.
Further reading:
The rise of performance politics in Indonesia? (New Mandala)
I would argue that the main reason why deteriorating democratic fundamentals as measured by international rating agencies are not reflected in the average Indonesian’s evaluation of government performance simply reflect the fact that the international ratings are tracking one conception of democracy, while domestic survey agencies are tracking another.
Sukarno: A Political Biography (John D Legge)
I’ve been working my way through this enormous one for the last week and a bit. Certainly wouldn’t recommend it for the casual reader (please, any pop biographies let me know!) but extraordinarily comprehensive for anyone who wants to get deep. And a good reminder that, well, if things feel complicated this year — at least it’s not the 1950s.