š®š© Prabowo takes centre stage
š®š© Prabowo takes centre stage
How the race looks in the regions
Hello friends!
I am so sorry for how bad this photo is, I really thought Iād gotten a good snap.
Anyway! Sign up to the regular Dari Mulut ke Mulut here where we look at the whole region twice a week.
Iām doing this every three days now because I just have so many feelings and links.
Tonight, Indonesia dan Lain-Lain will be looking at golput, which I am very excited about. So later this week expect a golput special.
See you then,
Erin Cook
Letās talk about Prabowo Subianto. He had his huge rally yesterday (Jokowi-Maāruf will have theirs next weekend) down the street at Gelora Bung Karno stadium. I love these rallies, I think itās amazing to see how many people come out! Still, letās talk about Prabowo. Early in this project I said something along the lines of the challenger having been reduced to a certain typecast back in 2014 that wasnāt going to let up. I think thatās still self-evident and if anything I feel more firmly in my belief that this is damaging not so much to his ticket and the coalition, that doesnāt worry me ā thatās politics baby!, but to voters who back him.
I think itās dangerous (and wrong) to tell the rest of the world that millions (over 62 million in 2014) of Indonesians are motivated by the darker elements of the campaign. The teamās focus on economic issues is a totally reasonable and understandable motivation to punch a nail next to the Prabowo-Sandi team. That doesnāt mean an endorsement of Komando 212.
The last few weeks have been more Prabowo than Sandi though and some of his comments have me walking back a step or two (or three). I was high-key alarmed when he went on the foreign media line at the debate, sitting with a couple of other colleagues right next to the supporters. Itās such a weird paradox. To Prabowo, the world still thinks of Indonesia the way it did in 1998. This isnāt true, but by speaking so hot the world has to be thinking, well maybe it is?
The galaxy brain take for all of this is Prabowo says what he has to say to pick up support from across the right spectrum and that none of this should be taken seriously. But assuming he wins, what happens then? Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan owed heavily and heās been rendered very quiet because of it. Not to mention, of course, how this plays out for non-Muslim majority areas across the archipelago who are watching all of this. Ā
The biffs with the General Elections Commission in recent months has set us up for a repeat rejection of results, as seen in 2014, so weāll certainly have more to think about in the weeks ahead.
This one from Asia and the Pacific Policy Society covers a lot of ground weāve been on for awhile (buzzers!) but with a cybersecurity lens. It looks at how legislation can be arbitrarily enforced, creating fears of censorship.
I was sad to read this one yesterday. Jokowi-Maāruf supporters clashed with FPI out in Yogyakarta, with barbs being exchanged and rocks thrown. I really hope as we get to the tail-end this is just an outlier.
āWithout Indonesiaās democratic state someone like Jokowi would not have been able to become president. I got a feeling he is taking it for granted.ā Cracking line from Dewi Anwar Fortuna in Kate Lambās latest for the Guardian.
China, China, China. āIt has become a negative point for Widodo, while Chinese investment is more of an elite issue which has attracted less attention from voters in general,ā Dodi Ambardi of Indikator Politik said of Chinese workers in the country.
I love this take on South Sulawesi. The gap between Jokowi and Prabowo has shortened immensely since 2014 and there could be a couple of reasons for this. Running with hometown hero Jusuf Kalla gave Jokowi a huge boost first time around. Kalla has endorsed him again this time, but hmm we all know how that turned out in 2018. Muslim voters are leaning towards Prabowo and, interestingly, are deeply cynical about the choice of Maāruf. Still, he is expected to carry the province. Iāll be keeping an eye on that one for sure!
Further east, how does it look? West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua make up 7 percent of the electorate overall so often gets forgotten for you-know-where. In 2014, the Muslim provinces went Prabowo while the Christian ones went Jokowi. What should we expect next week? Divisions.
More graphics, this time from Bloomberg.
Remember when Hillary Clinton said āPokemon Go to the pollsā? I think about that at least once a week and cringe. Telco firm Immobi Solusi Prima have a better option with AyoNyoblos.id which is an election-specific app to share information about the day and ~gamifying the tracking of results. āWe expect the app to encourage voters to use their voting rights. Voters have been using the app since April 1,ā CEO Erick Sitorus said.
Amien Rais, elder statesman and current chair of the Prabowo campaign, fronted up as a witness in the Ratna Sarumpaet hoax trial. Honestly, I wish Iād have started this project before that incident.
Is Bekasi the āJersey Cityā of Indonesia? Do people actually say that? Iāve never heard it before. I mean, the Queanbeyan of Indonesia, sure maybe. Either way, the West Java satellite city is split over who to choose.
Iāve been really enjoying Ella S. Prihatiniās work at the Conversation these last few months. Another brilliant one from her looks at how men have dominated politics, putting women off trying to get a foot in the door and the cycle continues. āOf the elected female candidates in the 2014 election, 47% were running as the number one candidate. Of the elected male candidates, 65% were running as the number one candidate.ā Come on!
Thereās been some messy gender stuff I donāt enjoy wading into these last few days, so this op-ed from the Jakarta Post is timely. The sexual violence eradication bill has been much more controversial than you would reasonably imagine, but fake news, hoax and deliberate misdirection is reigning supreme here. Check to see if your candidate supports the bill, JakPo says.
Political parties have to hit a threshold to take up seats in the parliament and ooh polling shows only eight of the 16 running can expect to get comfortable. PDI-P are running rings around everyone else, with Gerindra a distant second. Iāll be keeping a watch on Golkar who look set to have their worst result ever.